The Consequences Of Defeat

by Michael Medved - October 22nd, 2008 - Townhall.com

Despite the fact that leading polls continue to indicate a close Presidential election, and point to the very real chance of an upset victory for the McCain-Palin ticket, too many conservatives have begun to embrace a bizarre form of defeatism. According to this destructive logic, a Republican defeat in 2008 counts as not only inevitable, but necessary; some disgruntled voices on the right argue that a decisive win for Barack Obama might actually help the conservative cause in the long run.

I must say that I talk with a great number of conservatives, and the only ones who are talking this way are the hard core, mostly Ron Paul intransigent types, who have already abandoned the Republican Party. Most of the other conservatives I know are redoubling their efforts to assure a McCain-Palin victory if at all possible.

And there is reason to hope.

I don't think anyone knows the exact number, but just as in the last election, there are a large number of conservatives who avoid pollsters. It is thus true that the polls are wrong in favor of Obama by about 3% points. The polling companies always talk about the margin of error. It is amusing that margin always goes in favor of the liberal and the excuse afterwards is simply there was no bias, it was just margin of error. However the bias is real and always there and we can count on it.

Also there really is a bias in the polls in favor of being black. It is explained again and again by liberal media that the cause is racism. I don't believe this is the major problem. It is simply a reaction to the knee jerk insult of being called racist no matter what if you don't support the black candidate. So approximately 4% of the population will say they are supporting the black candidate even when they don't like the candidate for some other reason. With the extreme radical Marxism of Barack Obama, I don't think this "Bradley" effect is going to be less than the usual 4%.

That means that the current 9% advantage of Obama among voters who will state which way they are leaning is closer than it looks.

However that still indicates a probable Obama victory, unless something can be done to overcome the Bush damage from the "Depression Crisis" that he conjured up to prove he is still "relevant". McCain had almost closed the gap until Bush had to prove once again he is a tone deaf imbecile in how to handle communication about any crisis. In this particular case, Bush managed to convince America that a Democrat created problem was caused by Republicans, and then he did nothing to counter the MSM as they pounded the theme home that Republicans caused the crisis. How can Bush be that incompetent? I cannot believe anyone with half a brain could have gotten this result unless it was intentional. I believe it likely that Bush botched this crisis to make sure that John McCain did not follow him as President. Such a childish petulant move is one reason that as many Republicans despise and revile Bush as there are Democrats who despise and revile Bush.

This article by Medved has some good historical data that every Republican should review. It suggests that Republicans will have to struggle really hard in coming years to recover from the big government liberal agenda of George Bush being labeled a radical right wing agenda, and most people believing Republicans embrace this liberalism. It is truly ironic that the most liberal Republican President ever is viewed as the most conservative President ever by most Americans. As a result, big government is more acceptable than ever, even as people reject the Republican Party as too extremely right wing. Even many Republicans see big government solutions as okay thanks to Bush. Nevertheless we are viewed as more corrupt, more supportive of Wall Street greed than free enterprise, indifferent to the poor, hostile to public education and hated by the world at large. We are only grudgingly considered to be slightly better on national defense.

George Bush took over a Republican Party that was admired on most of these same issues and is going to leave offfice with the Republican Party in shambles. Both internal dissension and external hatred will have to be dealt with to recover from the disaster Bush has left. This is true whether MCain-Palin wins or loses.

If Obama wins, it is likely that the tyranny of socialism will become irreversible and Republican support for free enterprise will be ended if not useless. The Department of Education put in by Carter is still destroying our schools and Carter's Department of Energy has presided over the most disastrous energy policy of any nation in history, yet both are impervious to being dismantled. The Nazi like civil police force Obama has promised ("equal to the military" in Obama's words), universal health care, national pre-school and environmentally extreme carbon-credit trading will become embedded in our national institutions with an Obama victory.

This is the third time in recent history that I have felt compelled to refer to the poem of Pastor Martin Niemöller as our likely future.

When the Nazis came for the communists, I remained silent;
I was not a communist.

When they locked up the social democrats, I remained silent;
I was not a social democrat.

When they came for the trade unionists, I did not speak out;
I was not a trade unionist.

When they came for the Jews, I remained silent;
I wasn't a Jew.

When they came for me,
there was no one left to speak out.

It is my prediction that 20 years after an Obama victory, the major feeling of those living in the resulting tyranny in America, will be anger that, like the Germans, they could not see it coming.